Through the first half of the season, the star-studded Penguins were not a playoff team. Had the season ended in December, they would have been golfing, instead of winning the Stanley Cup. They were horrid offensively and average defensively. The team appeared to be atrociously mismanaged. The lone bright spot was starting goalie Marc-Andre Fleury. He was playing at an all-star level, maybe his best hockey since the Penguins last won the Stanley Cup in 2009. After the Penguins coaching change their offense erupted. the defense improved significantly and the goal-tending stayed consistently great.
What do you do now if you are GM Jim Rutherford? The Penguins now have the luxury of having two great goaltenders with Stanley Cups on their resume. The biggest debate of the off-season trade possibilities is what do the Penguins do with Marc-Andre Fleury? The Penguins have three options:
- Trade Fleury this off-season
- Trade Fleury at the trade deadline or after next season
- Lose Fleury in next year's expansion draft
We are not going to discuss the possibility of moving Matt Murray. You do not trade a 22 year old goalie that just won a Stanley Cup, especially when you are planning your future around him. Even if the team is not sold on Murray as their starter for this season, they already know he will be their starter sooner rather than later.
Trade Fleury Now
If they do trade Fleury this off-season it will be because Fleury and his agent told the team he wants out. It also would show the Penguins trust in Matt Murray. Fleury is in the middle of building a hall of fame career. Winner of two Stanley Cups, eight seasons with 30+ wins, two time all-star and an Olympic gold medal. Fleury is the type of goalie that could take any fringe playoff team and make them a Stanley Cup contender.
The other factor in wanting to trade Fleury right now is his contract. He is being paid $5.75 million per year until the end of the 2018-19 season. That is a hefty price to pay for someone that may be your back-up goalie. This is especially true of a team that is projected to be $1.5 million over the salary cap next season. The new found cap space from trading Fleury could be used to fill the holes left in the defense when Ben Lovejoy and Justin Schultz leave via free agency this summer.
The biggest reason the Penguins may want to trade Fleury right now is the NHL draft is this weekend. The Penguins are short on draft picks and prospects with NHL expectations. That is just what happens when a team trades away high draft picks each season in hopes of winning a cup right now. Trading a top ten NHL goalie with multiple years left on his contract and a team friendly cap hit can net the Penguins a big return. Reportedly the Calgary Flames have already inquired about Fleury and the Penguins asked for at least the Flames first round pick (6th overall). That pick would be a great asset for the Penguins as they try to build their young depth. However, a top ten pick may be a little too much to ask for a goalie that is in the second half of his career with a history of shaky playoff performances. Either way the Penguins want to get a first round pick, as they do not have a first, third or seventh round pick this season. Giving up Marc-Andre Fleury right now could get two of those picks and free up much needed cap room.
The downside to trading Fleury right now is you do not know what you will get from Matt Murray next season. Murray has been great, but that is only in 34 NHL games. There are plenty of goalies in the history of this league that have been one-hit wonders. In the 2010 playoffs Michael Leighton carried the Flyers to the Stanley Cup finals. Philadelphia thought they had all of their goaltending problems solved. Since then Leighton has started a total of three NHL regular season games. If Murray falls apart at the start of the 2016-17 season and Fleury is not waiting in the wings, what is the Penguins option? They don't have one. A team without a strong starting goalie cannot win a Stanley Cup.
Trade Fleury Later
If Fleury wants to stay in Pittsburgh and compete with Murray for the starting job, this is is what the Penguins want to do. Keeping both goalies in the short term offers the team an insurance policy. Murray's great performance leaves plenty of room for a backslide and each team discovered his weaknesses as the playoffs went on (shoot high glove). There is nothing that says you can only have one #1 goalie. The Blues finish near the top of the Western Conference each year with two goalies splitting time. Even if Murray continues to play great, he may not be physically ready for the rigors of being an NHL starting goalie for an 82 game season. Having the two of them offers the option get them both a lot of rest and never fearing the back end of back-to-back games.
The other item to keep in mind is Fleury's trade value is not going down anytime soon. He has been a great goalie for a decade in this league and was the starter for a Stanley Cup in 2009. Those guys values do not fall just because they were injured and lost their job to a wunderkind. What Fleury is worth right now is the same he will be worth in six months and a year from now. It may even go up come the trade deadline for a team like Dallas or Anaheim that believes they are a starting goalie away from winning the Stanley Cup.
Also, you always have to worry about goaltending injuries. Especially because both of these guys suffered serious concussions last season that forced them to miss playoff games. If you trade Fleury now and Murray suffers a second serious concussion, the Penguin's hopes of defending the Stanley Cup are over. You cannot plan for injuries, but you do have to expect they will happen.
The downside to keeping Fleury is the cap hit. Few teams need cap relief more than the Penguins. $5.75 million in cap space can buy this team a couple of solid players or make it possible to keep one of their key free agents, like Justin Schultz.
Fall Victim to the Expansion Draft
The NHL is expanding to add a franchise in Las Vegas, NV for the 2017-18 season. That leaves a full year for teams to plan and scheme their rosters to prepare for the inevitable expansion draft. Teams will have the ability to protect/block seven forwards, three defenseman and one goalie from being selected in the expansion. The Las Vegas franchise will be taking one player from each team to fill their roster. The key to these guidelines for the Penguins is they can only protect one goalie. Leaving either Fleury or Murray up for grabs. It is highly unlikely any other team would leave another goalie unprotected that is more appealing than either of the Penguin's options. Another wrench thrown into this confusing expansion draft is teams are required to protect any player with a no-movement clause in their contract, unless the player chooses to waive that clause. Murray does not have this clause, but Fleury does. So if it came down to the draft, the Penguins would not have a choice, they would be obligated to protect Fleury.
This is the least desirable of all the options, for obvious reasons. You want to protect Murray over Fleury in the expansion draft. You least want to lose Murray, but Fleury holds all the chips in this poker game. If Fleury does waive his no-movement clause then you are losing a great goalie and getting nothing in return. You would regain $5.75 million in cap space, but you would get that anyway if he were traded.
The expansion draft only becomes an option out of indecision or poor play by either goalie. If Fleury stays with the team, but plays poorly, his trade value may suffer and the Penguins would be less likely to trade him. This would also make it a little easier to let him go to Las Vegas. If Murray does not live up to expectations next season and shows no signs of rebounding it is very easy to let him go. He does not have a no-movement clause and the team already got more out of him than they may have ever expected. Also if he does play poorly, it is far more likely Las Vegas would pass on him than they would pass on Fleury.
All of the evidence points to a need to trade Fleury... eventually. There are pros and cons to doing it now or later. The biggest factor is risk. When evaluating the Penguins, or any team moving a key player, you have to decide how much risk the team can afford. The Penguins are in a great position, defending Stanley Cup champions with two apparently great goalies. They have the talent to potentially repeat as champions. Because of their potential as a team in the short term, they cannot afford the risk of not having a good enough goalie. With a great goalie they are Stanley Cup favorites next season. If they trade Fleury and then Murray shows he is an average goalie, they would not even be Stanley Cup contenders. They are not in the position to assume so much risk. That is why they need to hold onto Fleury for now, at least through the first half of next season. If these two goalies were elsewhere, say Toronto, we would not be having this same discussion. You would trade Fleury right now for a bunch of draft picks and bank on a bright future with Matt Murray. However, we are not in that scenario. The Penguins are in a position to be a great team and they need great goaltending to be that.
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