If you are in a fantasy hockey league currently or still need to sign up, you are probably drafting this weekend or early next week. So these tips will help guide you to the perfect team, or at least not the worst team in your league. Below are a few short lists that show you I have put much more thought into fantasy hockey than anyone ever should.
Rules to Draft By:
1. Do not draft the team that would have won last year:
The easiest thing to do is draft players based on the stats they put up last season. You have to keep in mind that those stats will not be replicated this year, most likely. Patrick Kane was the best player in hockey last season and in turn was the best fantasy hockey player. That probably will not be the case this season. So if you have the first pick in your draft look at guys most likely to do what Kane accomplished last year. My suggestions are Jamie Benn, Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin. To be fair, even if you do not draft the best player with the first pick, you are probably still getting a great player that will help you win. This rule applies to all rounds. Henrik Lundqvist has been one of the best goalies for years. Now may be the year that he starts to slip. So look for other goalies that may breakout this season.
2. Defense wins championships:
There is no shortage of offensive talent in the NHL. It seems every team has at least one player that can put up 30 goals. There are also 20 or so quality starting goalies. The shortage is scoring defenseman. There are maybe only 10 really good offensive defenseman you can rely on in the NHL. Unless you are in a really unique fantasy league, the stay at home defenseman like Brent Seabrook and Dion Phaneuf are virtually worthless. So if you are in a standard 10 team league, you would be wise to stock up two or three of the top scoring blue liners. Every team is going to have quality forwards that score equally and most teams will have a really good goalie. However, only a couple teams will have scoring defenseman that get them the extra points necessary to win your league. Be the person that everyone thinks is crazy because you "over-drafted" Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Shayne Gostisbehere in the second and third rounds.
3. Draft players you actually like:
I cannot stress this enough. You want to have fun playing fantasy hockey and still be able to watch your favorite team succeed. So draft players you like and stay away from the players that you can't stand to cheer for. If you are a Flyers fan, don't draft Sidney Crosby. If he does well and you win, you won't be happy anyway. If he plays poorly then your fantasy team stinks. You do not have to draft all the players from your home team, but do not draft your biggest rivals. You actually want to enjoy playing fantasy hockey.
4. Dynamic duos are risky:
There can be a lot of upside in drafting linemates, but it is also a huge risk. I completely understand why someone would want to have Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom. Almost every time Ovi scores, Backstrom will get an assist. Those points stack up quick. However, if Ovechkin gets injured or has a bad year, then your team is sunk. There are lots of tandems to look at. If you get a pair of linemates and they both have great years, like Benn and Seguin in Dallas, then your fantasy team will be great. Tread lightly here.
5. Get a goalie early:
Like I said, there are probably 20 quality starting goalies that can help your fantasy team. However, there are probably only four or five that can be real difference makers. So if you want a great goalie, you better get him in the first or second round of your draft. If you don't, then get three solid goalies in the middle of the draft and hope one overachieves. A sleeper like John Gibson or Petr Mrazek could pay off in a big way, but it is best to play it safe and get a Vezina finalist.
6. Avoid the big free agent signing:
The most interesting and exciting player to take is always the one that changed teams during the offseason. You are betting on them having an instant impact on their new team. That does not usually happen. Last year everyone thought Phil Kessel would be a 50 goal scorer playing on Crosby's wing. Turns out that did not happen and Phil was ineffective until the end of the season. This year's big free agents will get drafted way ahead of where they should. Do not be the person that "overdrafts" them. Chemistry is too important to hockey for a free agent to have an immediate impact. If you really want Milan Lucic, wait until December and trade for him. You will get him cheap because he won't live up to expectations. By February he will have developed chemistry with his new team and make an impact on your fantasy team.
Players to Look For:
These are not necessarily guys you should take in the first round. These are players to target during your draft that will pay off beyond their draft position. Some might call them sleepers.
1. Connor McDavid
It is no secret Connor McDavid is going to have a great season. He averaged over a point per game in his rookie year. However, McDavid could be a 100 point player this year. There are only a handful of those guys in the NHL. If Edmonton takes the next step, it will be because McDavid carried them there.
2. Tyler Toffoli
The Kings need an elite offensive player. Tyler Toffoli can be that player for them. He scored over 30 goals last season and I expect him to lead the Kings in goals. Expect him to score over 70 points this season. Not bad for someone you will be able to get in the fourth or fifth round.
3. Brad Marchand
It is a contract year, that is a big deal for Brad Marchand. He is already a desirable player for any team, but a strong scoring season will make him a very rich man next year. We all saw how he played at the World Cup of Hockey. He was not the pesky, dirty player we are used to. He was an offensive weapon for Team Canada. The Bruins need goal scoring if they are going to make the playoffs this year. Expect Boston to rely heavily on Marchand for offense.
4. Chris Kreider
The New York Rangers are fading. Still a great defensive team, but a complete lack of scoring threat. They need Chris Kreider to take the next step in his career and become an offensive weapon. He scored 20 goals last season, the Rangers need him to become a 30 goal scorer if they are going to be a playoff team. He has all the tools to do it.
5. Nathan MacKinnon
He was drafted to be a superstar. He has all the talent and speed to be just that. After three seasons, it is time for MacKinnon to produce like Colorado expected him to. His name does carry a lot of attention, so expect him to be drafted earlier than he should. If he does slip in the draft make sure you are the one to jump on him.
6. Jonathan Drouin
Is this finally the year Tampa Bay takes off the training wheels? They were forced to use Drouin in the playoffs last season and he exploded for them. With Stamkos out of the lineup he may have been the Lightning's most dynamic player. He is a lock for one of the top two lines this season and could be the breakout player of the year. He could score anywhere between 40 and 80 points. Even if he is on the low end of that projection, he is still worth the late round pick you will use on him.
7. Torey Krug
He is as offensive minded as they come. Boston paid big to make sure they kept Krug this offseason. That means they plan to play him a lot. Chara will not carry the same playing time as he has in the past, so expect Krug to take some of those minutes. Also expect him to gain a lot of powerplay minutes, the most valuable time to a fantasy hockey owner.
8. Matt Niskanen
One of the most underrated offensive defensemen in the league. He may not get as much time on the top powerplay unit as you would like, but he does get powerplay minutes. Also, Washington scores as many goals as anyone. Niskanen is a big beneficiary of that. If you miss out on a top scoring defensemen, he makes for a nice backup plan.
9. Cam Fowler
The Ducks lack great defenseman, but Fowler may be their most important. He will play a lot of minutes, including the powerplay. He has strong offensive skills and plays on a team that will score a lot. He is a great sleeper pick for your defense.
10. Devan Dubnyk
You need a #2 goalie. You want a #2 goalie that could have value as a #1 goalie. Dubnyk is that guy. He is going late in drafts, but he plays for a good defensive team with strong defensive forwards. Minnesota is not going to beat their opponents 5-4, they are going to beat teams 2-1. Most importantly, they know that. Dubnyk could make a great #2 goalie for your team.
Players to Avoid:
Look out for the hype train. You do not want to get hit by it and you certainly do not want to be on it. These players are going to be taken way too high in your draft, and will not produce enough to make it worth the draft pick.
1. Anze Kopitar
Anze is a great hockey player., but he is not a great scorer. He will get drafted around the same time as players like Pavelski and Backstrom, but will not have anywhere near the numbers. The Kings are not an offensive minded team. Kopitar may win another Selke, but he will not come close to an Art Ross.
2. Joe Thornton
Is this the year Jumbo Joe finally goes over the hill? It feels like it has to be. The Sharks are preparing to turn the page on the Thornton era. They have Pavelski and Couture to replace what Joe did provide. Something tells me the mental wear of finally getting to a Stanley Cup final, but not winning it will hurt Joe Thornton this season.
3. Milan Lucic
Like I said, do not get too excited over the big name free agents. Milan Lucic will have a solid season with the Oilers. However, he will not be an all-star and will not score 30 goals. He is not worth one of your top picks.
4. Andrew Ladd
Very good hockey player. He can make any team better, but he will not make your fantasy team better. The change of scenery to Brooklyn will take some getting use to for him. He could be a 20 goal scorer this year, but barely. I definitely do not see him breaking 60 points.
5. Auston Matthews
Nothing creates more hype than being the first overall pick. Matthews will be a very good player eventually, but not this year. Toronto is still a franchise in a bad situation. They have no identity and an overall lack of talent. Matthews will be the first rookie taken in your fantasy draft, but he will not score enough to be worth putting in your lineup.
6. Jonathan Toews
As far as hockey players go, Toews is one of the best in the world. However, he is not a point producer. He scores clutch goals and plays great at the most important times. That is all Chicago needs from him. The power scorers on the Blackhawks are Kane and Panarin. Toews can help your fantasy team, but name recognition makes him one of the most overdrafted players in fantasy hockey.
7. Martin Jones
Martin Jones became a household name after his playoff performance last year. This year we will find out if that was a hot streak, or he is actually that good. He is the 3rd ranked goalie in fantasy hockey this year. Really?! Ahead of Jonathan Quick and Ben Bishop. There is no reason to put that much stock in a mostly unproven goaltender. Even if he does live up to that ranking, there are still great goalies you can pick after he is off the board.
8. Matt Murray
Down the stretch and through the playoffs, Matt Murray was the best goalie in the NHL. He is young, talented and already has plenty of awards to backup his play. However, we don't even know if Murray will be the starting goalie in Pittsburgh this year. It has been Marc-Andre Fleury's team since the lockout and he is not ready to give up that job. The only reason Murray got the opportunity last season is because Fleury was injured. Not knowing the goalie situation in Pittsburgh makes me skeptical of drafting either goalie. Also, Matt Murray is injured and will miss the beginning of the season, making it Fleury's job to lose again.
#1 Rule:
The most important thing to remember about fantasy hockey, and fantasy sports in general... your team name is what really matters. If you can make your opponent laugh at your team name, then you are doing it right. If your team name is boring, then you probably are too. This is all about fun, make it as fun as possible.
No comments:
Post a Comment