October 10, 2016

Preseason Predictions

The 2016-17 NHL season is here. We have waited for months, suffered through a less than exciting offseason and it is finally time for real hockey to start. Every NHL season throws us curves and has its ups and downs. That is why we watch it and love it.

We all have our expectations for the year, of course I do. So here are my somewhat bold predictions for who will win the awards and the teams that will surprise us. Now that these have been posted they probably will not come true, but if they do, you can bet I will be bragging about it at the end of the year.
Note: These were written prior to news of Sidney Crosby's concussion.


Hart Trophy (MVP) - Sidney Crosby

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Sid the Kid is back to the player he was a few years ago. He is the undeniable best player in the world and healthy. He is riding a wave of team success with a Stanley Cup and World Cup championship this summer. Crosby has always put team success over personal success and that is what makes him the most special player in this league. The Hart Trophy is mostly about awarding a player for being great on a great team. The Penguins will have a great season from start to finish, unlike last year, and Crosby will be the best player on that team.

Art Ross Trophy (Most Points - Player) - Sidney Crosby

For the same reasons as the Hart Trophy, he will also win the Art Ross. I don't think this race will be close. The only thing that has prevented Crosby from winning 5 or more Art Ross Trophies is his health. Now he is 100% healthy and has developed chemistry with his teammates. Look for Crosby to get more opportunities to play with Kessel and Malkin during the regular season, boosting his total points.

Richard Trophy (Most Goals) - Steven Stamkos

The easy pick for this category every year is Alex Ovechkin. He shoots more than anyone else and has won the award four years in a row, but Steven Stamkos was the last player to win it before Ovechkin. The reasoning for Stamkos winning may have more to do with the Capitals than anything else. The Capitals are a super talented team. They have Kuznetsov, Carlson, Oshie and Backstrom to steal scoring opportunities from Ovechkin. Plus they have the defending Vezina trophy winner in Braden Holtby. I see the Capitals adjusting their playing style to be more defensive. After a decade of failure it may be time for a change. However, do not think of Stamkos as the de facto winner. He could easily be a 60 goal scorer this season. He is back to being healthy and surrounded by a great team that will help him put up a ton of goals.

Vezina Trophy (Best Goalie) - Jonathan Quick

Quick finished third in Vezina voting last season. He has never won the Vezina before, but he is a former William M. Jennings (fewest goals allowed) and Conn Smythe (playoff MVP) trophy winner. He is easily the best goalie in the NHL to never win a Vezina. He plays on a team that is perfect for him. They are defensive minded and play the style that makes the goalies job easier. Not to mention the team's best players are great in the defensive zone. Last season Drew Doughty won the Norris Trophy and Anze Kopitar won the Selke Trophy. Unless a goalie has another historic season, like Holtby did last year, the Vezina is Quick's to lose.

Norris Trophy (Best Defenseman) - Shea Weber

Weber has been one of the NHL's best defenseman for a decade now. He is great all over the ice. He has the hardest shot in the NHL and maybe hits the hardest too. Maybe the only thing that has kept him from winning a Norris Trophy in the past was his location. He was stranded in Nashville. A very solid team that always seems to make the playoffs, but no one talks about. Now he is in Montreal where he will receive more media attention than he could have ever imagined. It is a great recipe for Weber to finally get his Norris Trophy.

Selke Trophy (Best Defensive Forward) - Patrice Bergeron

Bergeron winning the Selke would be no surprise, he has won the award three times previously. Now that Pavel Datsyuk has retired, it feels like there are only three players that have any shot at winning this award; Kopitar, Toews and Bergeron. Of those three players, Bergeron is the player that needs to do the most for his team to be successful. The Blackhawks and Kings are super talented teams that have plenty of star players. Boston does not have the depth of talent and their window to win another Stanley Cup is closing. For the Bruins to be Stanley Cup contenders, they need Patrice Bergeron to be an elite player.

Jack Adams Award (Best Coach) - Jon Cooper

The Tampa Bay Lightning were the second best team in the Eastern Conference last season. They match up well with any team in the NHL and that is due to Jon Cooper's coaching. The Atlantic Division is wide open, but Tampa Bay is the best team in the division. As long as Cooper's top players stay healthy, his team should have another great season.

President's Trophy (Most Points - Team) - Dallas Stars

Last season the Dallas Stars won the the deepest and toughest division in the NHL. They have great skill and depth at forward. Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin are one of the scariest duos in the league. They have two very strong goaltenders to split time. Their only weakness last season was on the blue line. They did their best to fix that this offseason by adding Dan Hamhuis in free agency. I expect the Stars to pick up where they left off last season and improve on it.

Surprise Team - Edmonton Oilers

We have been waiting for years for the Edmonton Oilers to break through and finally live up to expectations. This should finally be the year. Connor McDavid was only available for half of last season, but in that time he averaged over a point per game and was one of the most electrifying players in the league. Their other young stars like Yakupov, Nugent-Hopkins and Eberle have another year of development under their belt. Even more importantly they had a great offseason. Adding Milan Lucic in free agency gives them a great offensive leader that knows how to win. Trading for Adam Larsson was questionable, but he gives them more depth and a trustworthy player on the blue line. The biggest question mark is goaltending. I expect Edmonton to be a playoff team this year.

Disappointing Team - New York Rangers

The Rangers are due for a letdown. They have been one of the league's premier teams for close to a decade. They have started to age out and do not have the talent level to keep up with their competition. The Penguins, Islanders, Capitals and Flyers are all deeper and more talented teams than the Rangers. They still have some great defenseman, it will continue to be the strength of their team. Henrik Lundqvist has been the backbone of this team and carried them deep into the playoffs many times, but he is now 34 years old and is no longer the goaltender he was. The Rangers cannot expect King Henry to steal them wins this season. The bigger concern is in the offensive zone. They lack the scoring to be able to keep up with their opponents. Rick Nash is not an elite goal scorer anymore and they do not have anyone on their roster to make up for that. Do not expect to see the New Rangers come playoff time.

Stanley Cup Champion - Anaheim Ducks

Predicting a Stanley Cup Champion is nearly the impossible. Last season the Penguins were a popular preseason pick, but two months into the season no one expected them to make the playoffs. After sifting through every great team and having many internal arguments, I settled on Anaheim. They have been an elite NHL team for over 15 years, but have not won a Stanley Cup since 2007. Their championship window is still very much open and they are hungry to win. They play in a challenging division that makes them playoff ready. They managed to win the Pacific Division even though San Jose represented the Western Conference in the Stanley Cup Finals. The Ducks are a special team. Tons of talent and size up front. Getzlaf, Perry and Kesler are difficult matchups for any team. Over the course of a seven game series these guys will wear out their opponents. Their blue line offers as much skill as any team. Cam Fowler is a special player ready to breakout. Goaltending is questionable, but the addition of Jonathan Bernier should help that. Picking today I would say the Anaheim Ducks survive the playoffs to win the Stanley Cup, but there are many great teams that are Stanley Cup contenders. 

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